NBA Duke Blue Devils vs. NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers

There is more than meets the eye to our next matchup. In theory, Duke should have no trouble at all against Minnesota, considering their histories and their respective standing in the college basketball landscape. However, this tournament is all about NBA performance, and both schools have produced a rich mix of NBA talent. How will the matchup between the NBA Duke Blue Devils vs. NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers play out? Several key factors will determine who advances to the Sweet 16.

NBA Duke Blue Devils vs. NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers

Key Matchups

Kevin McHale vs. Duke’s frontline – McHale, one of the greatest power forwards of all time, will face several different looks from the Blue Devils. Luol Deng will start off on him, but Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer, and Christian Laettner should all have a chance to guard him. Duke may have to utilize a double-team and play zone defense at times to disrupt his rhythm, since he should not have trouble with any of these defenders. On defense, McHale is versatile enough to guard Deng and Dunleavy on the perimeter, and he won’t embarrass himself if he’s forced to guard Grant Hill. Overall, McHale is a nice trump card who allows Minnesota to play big without sacrificing anything defensively against Duke’s modern offense.

Grant Hill vs. Sweet Lou and friends – Hill will split time with Kyrie Irving running Duke’s offense. He’ll primarily be matched up against Minnesota’s best perimeter scorer, Sweet Lou Hudson. Hill is bigger and more athletic than Hudson and should have a good series on both ends of the court. Hudson was a game defender, but he’ll likely need help from his teammates against the versatile Hill. Expect McHale to spend some time on Hill, with Hudson switching off to the bigger but less impactful Luol Deng. Off the bench, Minnesota does not have many ideal options to play against Hill or scoring wing Corey Maggette. Jim Brewer was a defensive stud, but he was more of a traditional power forward who was not used to defending quick, athletically dominant opponents. Mark Olberding would likely get the assignment, but Hill or Maggette should have their way if this matchup materializes. On the other end, Duke’s Shane Battier can harass Hudson all over the court and prevent any easy buckets for the should-be-Hall-of-Famer.

Biggest Mismatches

Duke’s bench vs. Minnesota’s bench – Duke’s bench provides them with a range of options in playing their opponents. Battier can give them an airtight perimeter defense when paired with Deng and Hill. J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy open up the floor for their teammates. Bob Verga, Maggette, and Carlos Boozer can provide instant offense, while Christian Laettner gives them a versatile big man who can do a little of everything on the offensive end. Minnesota’s bench is led by Bobby Jackson, who can provide instant offense, Trent Tucker and Voshon Lenard, who can shoot the lights out, and Brewer, who can provide a strong interior defensive presence, but it has neither the high-end talent nor depth of its counterpart.

Minnesota’s size advantage up front – Duke will typically forgo traditional two-big lineups, instead using Deng and Dunleavy as stretch-fours who can compete on both ends of the court. That should be good news for McHale as mentioned above, and he and Brewer should be able to take advantage of this on the glass as well. Mychal Thompson will have his hands full with Elton Brand, but he can use his height advantage to bother Brand on defense. If Thompson can keep up with Brand on the boards, Minnesota should be in good shape, but Duke’s size on the wing will help to mitigate this.

X-Factor

What will Duke’s late-game offense look like? Kyrie Irving is the best guard in this series, and the best bucket-getter for the Blue Devils. He can create any shot he wants, and he’s had success as a closer late in games. He’ll have to find the right balance between hero-ball and putting his teammates in position to succeed. Duke has an array of shooters they can pair Irving with, along with Hill and Brand, who should be involved in the closing minutes. Minnesota will primarily rely on Hudson and McHale down the stretch, though Archie Clark will be involved as well, preferably in more of a facilitator role.

Results

Minnesota comes to play, and utilizes their strong frontcourt and brilliant performances by McHale and Clark to take several games. However, Duke utilizes their depth and versatility to wear down the Golden Gophers over the course of the series. Their strong perimeter defense on Hudson limits his effectiveness, and Irving helps them close it out in six hard fought games.

Duke wins, four games to two.

Next Round

Duke faces the winner of San Francisco vs. Georgetown.

NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers

NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers

Our next team will try to play the role of spoiler in the NBA March Madness Tournament. They’ve had modest success throughout their history, making the NCAA Tournament 14 times, and the Final Four once, an appearance which was later vacated by the NCAA. Now led by the son of a coaching legend, they’re hoping to become relevant again in the college basketball landscape. Despite their struggles, they’ve produced impressive NBA talent throughout their history, including four top-five draft picks, all of whom are represented on this roster. The NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers are a talented underdog who boasts a formidable starting unit.

Archie Clark was one of the most exciting players of his era, using crossovers and hesitation dribbles like a modern-day guard. Today, the two-time all-star would likely be able to stretch his jump shot out to the three-point line and have his scoring ability translate to the modern era. Clark could play at either guard position, as could his starting backcourt mate, Ray Williams. Williams was dynamic in the early years of his career, cumulatively averaging 19.6 PPG and 6.0 APG from 1978-79 to 1981-82. He had a sweet jump shot that also would have likely translated to the three-point line in today’s NBA, and on the other end of the court, he aggressively hunted for steals (averaging 2+ SPG four times in his career), and had solid defensive metrics during his prime (top 5 in defensive rating and defensive box plus/minus in 1983-84). The depth of this backcourt is impressive, with Bobby Jackson, Trent Tucker, and Voshon Lenard coming off the bench. Jackson found his calling in Sacramento, as a dynamic sixth man who could change the pace of a game and score in bunches. Tucker is the tallest member of the group (6’5”), who was one of the league’s greatest shooters. He can play next to any of the aforementioned guards and serve as a valuable floor spacer. Lenard can do the same, though he wasn’t as accurate as Tucker from long-range, especially when the three-point line was moved back to its original distance after the ’97 season. However, he could still shoot it effectively (37.9% career from three at the normal distance), and he should be able to earn minutes for this team, even as a fifth guard.

The starting forwards were Hall-of-Fame-level competitors whose games would translate to any era. Lou Hudson was a brilliant scorer who arguably had the prettiest jump shot of his generation. In his six-year prime, he cumulatively averaged 25.2 PPG on an efficient 49.7% from the field, and it’s scary to think about what he could do with the three-point line (think Klay Thompson with more playmaking and off-the-dribble capacity). He also was a disruptive defender, averaging 2.5 steals per game in the first year they recorded the statistic and posting solid defensive ratings throughout the latter half of his career (when this statistic was able to be computed). Kevin McHale was one of the most efficient scorers ever, earning a 60.5% career true shooting percentage and mastering the art of low-post basketball. He was also a dogged defender, earning six all-defensive team nods and guarding a range of players on the perimeter and low post. They’re backed up by Mark Olberding, who was part of the San Antonio Spurs’ ‘Bruise Brothers’ frontcourt that rebounded at a high level and roughed up their opponents.  He could play either forward position, though he would be a better fit as a modern day four (or five) who could pass well for his position. Jim Brewer was the second overall pick in the 1973 NBA draft; while he did not live up to that lofty status, he was an all-league defender who has a top-20 all-time defensive rating for his career.

The starting center, Mychal Thompson, was the number one overall pick in 1978. He averaged over 20 points and 10 rebounds in his third (active) year in the league, and in a five-year stretch in Portland, he averaged 17.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 1.5 BPG on 50.9% shooting from the field. After a brief detour in San Antonio, he served as a high-end backup for two championship teams in Los Angeles before starting on a 63-win team that disappointed in the playoffs. A talented rebounder and passer, he should be able to play well with McHale. He’s backed up by two behemoths: Joel Przybilla and Randy Breuer. The 7’1” Przybilla was a force on the boards and protecting the rim; in 2008-09, he had his best year and led the league in rebounding percentage. The 7’3” Breuer had a few solid seasons early in his career, but would have a very hard time adjusting to today’s game and is likely to be called upon only if his teammates get in foul trouble.

The NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers should be a high-scoring team, with Hudson and McHale leading a balanced attack. Their best defensive lineup will likely feature McHale, Brewer, and Hudson, with a rotating cast at the other two positions depending on the matchup. Seeded 29th in our tournament, they have a first-round matchup against the NBA Duke Blue Devils.