NBA Duke Blue Devils vs. NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers

There is more than meets the eye to our next matchup. In theory, Duke should have no trouble at all against Minnesota, considering their histories and their respective standing in the college basketball landscape. However, this tournament is all about NBA performance, and both schools have produced a rich mix of NBA talent. How will the matchup between the NBA Duke Blue Devils vs. NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers play out? Several key factors will determine who advances to the Sweet 16.

NBA Duke Blue Devils vs. NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers

Key Matchups

Kevin McHale vs. Duke’s frontline – McHale, one of the greatest power forwards of all time, will face several different looks from the Blue Devils. Luol Deng will start off on him, but Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer, and Christian Laettner should all have a chance to guard him. Duke may have to utilize a double-team and play zone defense at times to disrupt his rhythm, since he should not have trouble with any of these defenders. On defense, McHale is versatile enough to guard Deng and Dunleavy on the perimeter, and he won’t embarrass himself if he’s forced to guard Grant Hill. Overall, McHale is a nice trump card who allows Minnesota to play big without sacrificing anything defensively against Duke’s modern offense.

Grant Hill vs. Sweet Lou and friends – Hill will split time with Kyrie Irving running Duke’s offense. He’ll primarily be matched up against Minnesota’s best perimeter scorer, Sweet Lou Hudson. Hill is bigger and more athletic than Hudson and should have a good series on both ends of the court. Hudson was a game defender, but he’ll likely need help from his teammates against the versatile Hill. Expect McHale to spend some time on Hill, with Hudson switching off to the bigger but less impactful Luol Deng. Off the bench, Minnesota does not have many ideal options to play against Hill or scoring wing Corey Maggette. Jim Brewer was a defensive stud, but he was more of a traditional power forward who was not used to defending quick, athletically dominant opponents. Mark Olberding would likely get the assignment, but Hill or Maggette should have their way if this matchup materializes. On the other end, Duke’s Shane Battier can harass Hudson all over the court and prevent any easy buckets for the should-be-Hall-of-Famer.

Biggest Mismatches

Duke’s bench vs. Minnesota’s bench – Duke’s bench provides them with a range of options in playing their opponents. Battier can give them an airtight perimeter defense when paired with Deng and Hill. J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy open up the floor for their teammates. Bob Verga, Maggette, and Carlos Boozer can provide instant offense, while Christian Laettner gives them a versatile big man who can do a little of everything on the offensive end. Minnesota’s bench is led by Bobby Jackson, who can provide instant offense, Trent Tucker and Voshon Lenard, who can shoot the lights out, and Brewer, who can provide a strong interior defensive presence, but it has neither the high-end talent nor depth of its counterpart.

Minnesota’s size advantage up front – Duke will typically forgo traditional two-big lineups, instead using Deng and Dunleavy as stretch-fours who can compete on both ends of the court. That should be good news for McHale as mentioned above, and he and Brewer should be able to take advantage of this on the glass as well. Mychal Thompson will have his hands full with Elton Brand, but he can use his height advantage to bother Brand on defense. If Thompson can keep up with Brand on the boards, Minnesota should be in good shape, but Duke’s size on the wing will help to mitigate this.

X-Factor

What will Duke’s late-game offense look like? Kyrie Irving is the best guard in this series, and the best bucket-getter for the Blue Devils. He can create any shot he wants, and he’s had success as a closer late in games. He’ll have to find the right balance between hero-ball and putting his teammates in position to succeed. Duke has an array of shooters they can pair Irving with, along with Hill and Brand, who should be involved in the closing minutes. Minnesota will primarily rely on Hudson and McHale down the stretch, though Archie Clark will be involved as well, preferably in more of a facilitator role.

Results

Minnesota comes to play, and utilizes their strong frontcourt and brilliant performances by McHale and Clark to take several games. However, Duke utilizes their depth and versatility to wear down the Golden Gophers over the course of the series. Their strong perimeter defense on Hudson limits his effectiveness, and Irving helps them close it out in six hard fought games.

Duke wins, four games to two.

Next Round

Duke faces the winner of San Francisco vs. Georgetown.

NBA Duke Blue Devils

NBA Duke Blue Devils

Our next profile features alums from the gold standard of college hoops. How amazing has their run been since Mike Krzyzewski took over in the 1980-81 season? They’ve earned the number one ranking in the AP poll in 20 of 40 seasons. They’ve made the Final Four 12 times, including a stretch from 1985-86 through 1993-94 where they made 7 in 9 seasons. They’ve won five national championships, and were runner-up four other times. While they’ve consistently remained relevant in the national title picture, the quality of their NBA players has changed over time. At the beginning of Coach K’s tenure, a high percentage of their players failed to make a meaningful impact in the pros. Over time, as they’ve adapted to the “one-and-done” era, they’ve produced a steady stream of early entry stars, including three members of their starting lineup, who combined to play four collegiate seasons. The NBA Duke Blue Devils are led by 10 players from Coach K’s legendary tenure, which looks poised to continue into the foreseeable future.

Kyrie Irving didn’t exactly have a lasting impact at Duke, missing 26 games in his lone season on campus before becoming the number one pick in the NBA Draft. Despite this, he has become the greatest pro guard the school has ever produced. Irving is an unparalleled shot maker, who has thrived in clutch situations, including in the 2016 Finals, when he made one of the most important shots in NBA history. His efficiency stands out; over the past four years (from 2016-17 through 2019-20), he has shot a combined 48.2% from the field, 40.2% from three, and 89.4% the line, while scoring 24.8 points per game with a 24.0 PER and .194 WS/48.  He will serve as this team’s best late game option on offense. He’s joined in the starting lineup by Jeff Mullins, a three-time all-star who scored more than 20 points per game four consecutive years in his prime with the Warriors. Mullins had good size for his position at the time (6’4”), and was able to beat opponents with his effective pull-up jumper and by driving to the hole. He and Irving will be difficult for opponents to stop, as both have well-rounded offensive games. Bob Verga is another explosive offensive option who can play either guard position off the bench. Verga was a scoring machine in his brief ABA career, which peaked in 1969-70, when he averaged 27.5 PPG and made the all-ABA first team while finishing fifth in the MVP race. He’ll be used when this team needs instant offense off the bench, and he can play alongside both starting guards. J.J. Redick is one of the modern game’s great shooters, who seems to get better with age. He will add another dimension to this team’s offensive game, as his floor spacing will create room for all of their primary options.

To date, Grant Hill is the only Naismith Hall-of-Famer to attend Duke. Hill was one of the league’s great playmakers from the small forward position, and may be the best passer on this team. One of the most impressive parts of Hill’s career is the way he battled through years of injuries and remade his game into an effective supporting role with Phoenix. He can wear multiple hats on this team; lead play maker and primary ball-handler as he played in his Detroit days, or 3-and-D complementary piece as he played in Phoenix. Luol Deng was a rock-solid pro who gave his all for the Tom Thibodeau Chicago Bulls teams of the 2010s. A two-time all-star, he was a standout defensive player who proved to be a very effective stretch-four in Miami (after playing small forward most of his career), before his career cratered in Los Angeles. Deng adds a much-needed defensive presence for the starting lineup, and Shane Battier, the famed “no-stats all-star” will do the same off the bench. Battier is another valuable 3-and-D piece who can easily slot into the starting lineup when needed and guard the opposing team’s best player. Corey Maggette is another swingman who may be this team’s best athlete. Maggette was an underrated scorer who had a tremendous ability to draw fouls, where he sank over 82% of his shots for his career. A three-time 20+ PPG scorer, he did most of his damage from the mid-range and in, and he’ll add another dimension for this team on offense. Mike Dunleavy Jr. was an excellent role player who could play multiple positions while also spacing the floor. In the modern game, he’d be a prototypical four, who can switch on to smaller players when needed.

Elton Brand will start as this team’s center. Brand was an excellent pro who helped the Clippers briefly escape the doldrums in the early 2000s. In Brand’s first eight seasons as a pro, before he ruptured his Achilles’ tendon in his ninth season and moved to a different phase of his career, he averaged 20.3 PPG, 10.2 RPG, and 2.1 blocks per game, on 50.5% shooting from the field with 22.7 PER and .168 WS/48. His long arms, stout frame, and ability to protect the rim will help him man the middle despite his relatively short stature (6’8”). Off the bench, Carlos Boozer was another 20/10 guy in his prime, who mastered the pick-and-pop game in his seasons with the Jazz. The league has evolved and power forwards like Boozer who don’t switch or protect the rim on defense or space the floor on offense are not as prevalent in today’s game, but this team can experiment with Boozer at center backing up Brand or playing alongside Elton in more traditional lineups. Christian Laettner is this team’s tallest player at 6’11, and he’ll serve as Brand’s primary backup off the bench. Laettner had a somewhat underrated pro career, averaging 17.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 1.0 BPG over his first five seasons, and he likely could have extended the range on his jump shot out to the three-point line in the modern-day game.

This team’s positional versatility will be tremendous, as they sport a high volume of long, athletic wings that are the biggest asset in the modern-day game. They will feature Battier, Deng, and Hill in their best defensive lineups, and their offense will run primarily through Hill, Irving, and Brand. The fourth-rated team in our tournament, they have an intriguing first-round matchup against the NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers.